Quake Prediction 2010

[redeye]

Apparently toads may have the answer:

Toads ‘predict earthquakes’

Cheers!

[moses]

A cheap and simple pre-earthquake warning system. Watch those frogs !
Mo

[thane]

We have elevated k index values today. Tom, how do we tell if we had a plasmoid captured and where it entered?

[redeye]

A cheap and simple pre-earthquake warning system. Watch those frogs !

I had to check that the news report wasn't released on the 1st of April.

It suggests there must be some sort of precursor signal to earthquakes. The guy I heard discussing it on the radio suggested that it may be something to do with the Earth's magnetic field, makes sense to me.

Cheers!

[tolenio]

Hello,

It is easier to find them over time.

Look for;

High barometric pressure and lightning as good indicators

Asia pressure map;
http://www.findlocalweather.com/weather_maps/pressure_south_asia.html

Lightning imagry;
http://wwlln.net/five_day_density_average.jpg

Thermal imaging sometimes works but the sun can warm cloud tops too;
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html



Plasmoids are always forming. Think of it as a window left unattended banging open and closed all the time. How much weather blows in depends on how hard the wind is blowing and how dense the rain is.

You need to see extended periods in the K index of 3 to see above background quakes. Or K indexes 4 or better for larger quakes.

Think of k indexes between 1-3 as small shoves, and 4 or higher as larger and larger shoves.

Cracks in Earth's Magnetic Shield
Immense cracks in our planet's magnetic field can remain open for hours, allowing the solar wind to gush through and power stormy space weather.

I only have access to online data.

In regards to frogs... I suspect all animals have some degree of "electric sense" including humans. Humans simply do not pay attention because their thouthts are too jumbled, too busy. Humans rely on sight, hearing and touch, but what happens in a dark alley when these senses are cut off from input and you are feeling spooked? The secondary systems kick in and primary senses peek in scanning. What is the secondary system...

Michael Faraday states;

"that a voltage is induced in a circuit whenever relative motion exists between a conductor and a magnetic field and that the magnitude of this voltage is proportional to the rate of change of the flux".

Lenz states;

But a changing magnetic flux produces a varying current through the coil which itself will produce its own magnetic field as we saw in the Electromagnets tutorial. This self-induced emf opposes the change that is causing it and the faster the rate of change of current the greater is the opposing emf. This self-induced emf will, by Lenz’s law oppose the change in current in the coil and because of its direction this self-induced emf is generally called a back-emf.

Lenz's Law states that:

"the direction of an induced emf is such that it will always opposes the change that is causing it". In other words, an induced current will always OPPOSE the motion or change which started the induced current in the first place. Likewise, if the magnetic flux is decreased then the induced emf will oppose this decrease by generating and induced magnetic flux that adds to the original flux.

This means that a conductor (animals conduct electricity) or competing magnetic fields (all living organisms have magnetic fields) will produce a current (a signal) as the conductor moves through the magnetic field, or magnetic field strength varies between the competing fields.

MRI operators have to be careful because the can suffer magnetophosphenes from their eqipment. Natural levels are much lower.

Nerve Conductivity

Rapid echo planar imaging and high-performance MRI gradient systems create fast-switching magnetic fields that can stimulate muscle and nerve tissues produced by either changing the electrical resistance or the potential of the excitation. There are apparently no effects on the conduction of impulses in the nerve fiber up to field strength of 0.1 T. A preliminary study has indicated neurological effects by exposition to a whole body imager at 4.0 T. Theoretical examinations argue that field strengths of 24 T are required to produce a 10% reduction of nerve impulse conduction velocity.
Nerve stimulations during MRI scans can be induced by very rapid changes of the magnetic field. This stimulation may occur for example during diffusion weighted sequences or diffusion tensor imaging and can result in muscle contractions caused by effecting motor nerves. The so-called magnetic phosphenes are attributed to magnetic field variations and may occur in a threshold field change of between 2 and 5 T/s. Phosphenes are stimulations of the optic nerve or the retina, producing a flashing light sensation in the eyes. They seem not to cause any damage in the eye or the nerve.
Varying magnetic fields are also used to stimulate bone-healing in non-unions and pseudarthroses. The reasons why pulsed magnetic fields support bone-healing are not completely understood. The mean threshold levels for various stimulations are 3 600 T/s for the heart, 900 T/s for the respiratory system, and 60 T/s for the peripheral nerves.
Guidelines in the United States limit switching rates at a factor of three below the mean threshold for peripheral nerve stimulation. In the event that changes in nerve conductivity happens, the MRI scan parameters should be adjusted to reduce dB/dt for nerve stimulation.

Search Google using keywords "magnetosphosphenes taste headache flash" to learn more about extreme sensations.

So what proof is there that humans have an "electric sense" they ignore;

Scientists trace origin of shark’s electric sense
February 6, 2006
Sharks are known for their almost uncanny ability to detect electrical signals while hunting and navigating. Now researchers have traced the origin of those electrosensory powers to the same type of embryonic cells that gives rise to many head and facial features in humans.

Again, what happens in a dark alley when humans are spooked? Hair stands on end, goose bumps. Active hair folicles are dipoles making them perfect antenna for picing up electromagnetic data. Our primary senses are so strong now we totally ignore them. Animals rely on the more.

Cripes if we were smart we would migrate south in the winter and nobody would need to tell us which directtion was south. I expect animals can sense the electric build up to an earthquake and pay attention.

Tom

[thane]

Tom

considering the first post in this thread, is the baja quake today equal to the sfo quake in 1906?

[tolenio]

Hi,

Personally I believe it is a matter of latitude just like sunspots in the solar cycles. This would be why there is periodocity to qukaes at certain locations. Every time the sun's compounded cycles produce specific amounts of plasma it meets certain criteria that dertermine how the solar system and its planets will be affected.

A more northern quake is in the cards in my opinion.

For example;



My understanding of of the first 12 solar cycles running concurrently; (approx 38 in total) show this window for Hayward Fault;

Sequence Years Long
1 .......... 5.7
2 .......... 11.4
3 .......... 11.4
4 ......... 22.9
5 .......... 34.3
6 .......... 57.2
7 .......... 91.5
8 .......... 137.2
9 .......... 182.9
10 .......... 320.1
11 .......... 503.1
12 .......... 823.2
etc to the longest 223 million year cycle

Rescaled earthquake recurrence time statistics: application to microrepeaters
Christian Goltz 1,2 , Donald L. Turcotte 2 , Sergey G. Abaimov 2 , Robert M. Nadeau 3 , Naoki Uchida 4 and Toru Matsuzawa 4
1 Kiel University, Germany. ABSTRACT
Slip on major faults primarily occurs during 'characteristic' earthquakes. The recurrence statistics of characteristic earthquakes play an important role in seismic hazard assessment. A major problem in determining applicable statistics is the short sequences of characteristic earthquakes that are available worldwide. In this paper, we introduce a rescaling technique in which sequences can be superimposed to establish larger numbers of data points. We consider the Weibull and log-normal distributions, in both cases we rescale the data using means and standard deviations. We test our approach utilizing sequences of microrepeaters, micro-earthquakes which recur in the same location on a fault. It seems plausible to regard these earthquakes as a miniature version of the classic characteristic earthquakes. Microrepeaters are much more frequent than major earthquakes, leading to longer sequences for analysis. In this paper, we present results for the analysis of recurrence times for several microrepeater sequences from Parkfield, CA as well as NE Japan. We find that, once the respective sequence can be considered to be of sufficient stationarity, the statistics can be well fitted by either a Weibull or a log-normal distribution. We clearly demonstrate this fact by our technique of rescaled combination. We conclude that the recurrence statistics of the microrepeater sequences we consider are similar to the recurrence statistics of characteristic earthquakes on major faults.

I believe we have only indentified the major harmonic and obvious cycles at this point in time.

Tom

[tolenio]

This in the cards for the US West Cost in 12 days;





The sun is a well oiled clock.

Tom

[tolenio]

Nice geomagnetic storm blowing now (plasma event).

:Product: Geophysical Alert Message wwv.txt
:Issued: 2010 Apr 05 1200 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
# Geophysical Alert Message
#
Solar-terrestrial indices for 04 April follow.
Solar flux 79 and mid-latitude A-index 12.
The mid-latitude K-index at 1200 UTC on 05 April was 7 (257 nT).

Go here to watch the ACE monitor (press the play button);
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SWN/index.html

Tom

[tolenio]

Official Space Weather Advisory issued by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
Boulder, Colorado, USA

SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY BULLETIN #10- 1
2010 April 05 at 12:13 p.m. MST (2010 April 05 1213 UTC)

**** STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM IN PROGRESS ****

A geomagnetic storm began at 05:55 AM EST Monday, April 5, 2010. Space
weather storm levels reached Strong (G3) levels on the Geomagnetic
Storms Space Weather Scale. The source of the storming is an
Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejection associated with a weak solar flare
that occurred in Active Region 1059 on April 3 at 05:54 AM EST. This
is expected to be an isolated storm that should subside quickly. Other
than the flare and CME erupting on April 3, this active region has not
produced any significant activity. Systems that can be affected
include electric power systems, spacecraft operations, high-frequency
communications, GPS, and other navigation systems.

Data used to provide space weather services are contributed by NOAA,
USAF, NASA, NSF, USGS, the International Space Environment Services
and other observatories, universities, and institutions. More
information is available at SWPC's Web site http://swpc.noaa.gov

So now we wait;

~2 days Japan longitude
~12 days US West Coast longitude
~13 days Oklahoma longitude
~15 days US east coast longitude
~26 days mid Atlantic ridge longitude
~30 days west coast Europe longitude
~45-50 full circuit

This just in...

This alert is from the Rice Space Institute issued on Mon Apr 5 13:00:01 GMT 2010

ACE Solar Wind observations warrant condition RED

Trigger Boyle index (kV): 201.410000

Tom
etc

[thane]

Tom,

How do you get the 2 days to Japan? How do you get the starting point? How do we determine Northern or Southern
Hemisphere?

Thanks!

[tolenio]

Observaton.

[thane]

Tom
what specific observation? I looked at lightning etc. I can't see whatever it is you are seeing.

[tolenio]

Hi,

Do you think the 1906 San Francisco earthquake was a random event, ocurring on April 18th or it may be a cyclic event tied to some form of solar cycling?

I strongly suspect that the 1906 quake is tied to the wolf-gleissberg 80-120 year solar cycle. During the minima in that long period minima the sun hiccups resulting in the current solar conditions. This solar unseaseasonable event forces larger plasmoids into the magnetosphere that result in larger quakes. A strong burst of wind in an otherwise quiet period.

A hiccup that looks like this;



I strongly suspect we are in the midst of the wolf-gleissberg 80-120 year minima hiccup in solar activity and we are going to see Chile repeated in North America within ~12 days of the commencement of the event.



A simple matter of days will tell the tale.

Regards,
Tom

[thane]

Tom,

There was a brief K index spike on 4-12-2010. How do we tell where this plasma entered? Could the Chinese quake be a result?

Also - where do you get your global lightning data and warm/cold front data? I tried to find a reliable (free) source online and I cannot.

Thanks!