Solar wind and storms

[nick c]

From this press release Solar Wind Loses Power, Hits 50-year Low http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/23sep_solarwind.htm

What could some of the predictions that can be made wrt such a low solar output?

Less power in= less power out?

Sol's protective heliosphere weakening therefore Earths in sympathy?

More energetic "cosmic" rays doing damage through making it into our sloar system/ionosphere/atmosphere?

Weather changes?

Earthquakes?

Am I on the right track?

[Steve Smith]

I've been considering the following points submitted to an email group I belong to and there's definitely something to think about regarding the "solar output" periodicity. We have no idea how the Sun and the Earth interacted over the last 10,000 years, for example. We have only a small snapshot in a moment of time to review.

--- The sunspot cycle may be something of a figment. As Frederick Zeuner indicated in DATING THE PAST (London, 1950—p.16), sunspots vary periodically, but the periodicity varies between 5.6 and 19.9 years. Even in averaging 96 spot cycles, the best that one can come up with is that in 63 of them, they varied between 9.9 and 11.9 years. The 11.2 or 11.4-year cycle is nothing but a composite periodicity. And even then, Zeuner write that it is not constant. The 11-year cycle ends up being nothing but a potpourri of manipulated averages.

The problem is that the averages in question are manipulated by those who use them to prove whatever point they are trying to make. What is worse is that the results of these manipulated averages are picked up by others in their attempt to jump on the same band wagon. This happens so often that, in the end, the original source of the manipulated averages is forgotten (when not lost). It is also forgotten that the cycle was originally based on averages, until blind citation turns the entire matter into sanctified dogma.

Averaging averages is something I was taught in business never to do. I'm sure it applies to these averages, as well.

[StefanR]

I've been considering the following points submitted to an email group I belong to and there's definitely something to think about regarding the "solar output" periodicity. We have no idea how the Sun and the Earth interacted over the last 10,000 years, for example. We have only a small snapshot in a moment of time to review.

I think you got a point in stating the difficulty in extrapolating or determining the periodicity itself the further out in the past.
That there is a certain periodicity to been seen in the last century is quite undoubtable.


Figure 2: The sunspot butterfly diagram. This modern version is constructed (and regularly updated) by the solar group at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle

A hint to a possible interaction between solar output and the earth is maybe the Maunderminimun:

Following the numbering scheme established by Wolf, the 1755-1766 cycle is traditionally numbered "1". The period between 1645 and 1715, a time during which very few sunspots were observed, is a real feature, as opposed to an artifact due to missing data, and coincides with the Little Ice Age. This epoch is now known as the Maunder minimum, after Edward Walter Maunder, who extensively researched this peculiar event, first noted by Gustav Spörer.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle

And if I compare the dates of a 200km iceskating event in The Netherlands with the chart of the sunspots above:

Year
1909
1912
1917
1929
1933
1940
1941
1942
1947
1954
1956
1963
1985
1986
1997

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elfstedentocht

There is a certain tendency, if it's real I'm not sure.
But maybe I misunderstood your objection.

[WhiteLight]

Source Of Solar Wind Discovered

ScienceDaily (Apr. 3, 2008) — An international team of scientists have found the source of the stream of particles that make up the solar wind. In a presentation on Wednesday 2 April at the RAS National Astronomy Meeting (NAM 2008) in Belfast, Professor Louise Harra of the UCL-Mullard Space Science Laboratory will explain how astronomers have used a UK-led instrument on the orbiting Hinode space observatory to finally track down the starting point for the wind.

The solar wind consists of electrically charged particles that flow out from the Sun in all directions . Even at their slowest, the particles race along at 200 km per second, taking less than 10 days to travel from the Sun to the Earth. When stronger gusts of the wind run into the magnetic field of the Earth there can be dramatic consequences, from creating beautiful displays of the northern and southern lights (aurorae) to interfering with electronic systems on satellites and sometimes even overloading electrical power grids on the ground.

full story ...... http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/20 ... 155139.htm

[keeha]

Wikipedia is electrifying? A nice webpage for solar wind. Solar wind

[seasmith]

The Sun Shows Signs of Life

10.07.2008

After two-plus years of few sunspots, even fewer solar flares, and a generally eerie calm, the sun is finally showing signs of life.

"I think solar minimum is behind us," says sunspot forecaster David Hathaway of the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center.

His statement is prompted by an October flurry of sunspots. "Last month we counted five sunspot groups," he says. That may not sound like much, but in a year with record-low numbers of sunspots and long stretches of utter spotlessness, five is significant. "This represents a real increase in solar activity."

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/07nov_signsoflife.htm?list1066595

[webolife]

See StefanR's graph.

In all of the hubbub around global warming, why haven't I seen this spectacular graphic display of sunspot activity before?
That's a rhetorical question, so don't answer me literally, please. Given the clear regularity of the sunspot cycle shown here, it is obvious that the extent and area of that sunspot activity has been steadily increasing over the last century.... maybe beginning to taper off a bit now? I've heard of, and spoken about, this connection numerous times with colleagues and friends, but I'actually have never seen this particular graph before. Revelatory!

[redeye]

In all of the hubbub around global warming, why haven't I seen this spectacular graphic display of sunspot activity before?

An Inconvenient Truth perhaps.

Cheers!

[saturnine]

How accurate can sunspot counts from the 1700s actually be? What kind of tools were they using back then, or was it just somebody simply staring at the sun with the unaided eye?

[edcrater]

How accurate can sunspot counts from the 1700s actually be? What kind of tools were they using back then, or was it just somebody simply staring at the sun with the unaided eye?

This from wiki:
""A helioscope is an instrument used in observing the sun.
The helioscope was first used by Benedetto Castelli (1578-1643) and refined by Galileo (1564–1642). The method involves projecting an image of the sun onto a white sheet of paper suspended in a darkened room with the use of a telescope.
[1]
The first heliotropii telioscopici or helioscope was designed by Christoph Scheiner (1575 –1650) to assist his sunspot observations.""

Sounds like not much got past them observationally.

[substance]

This from wiki:
""A helioscope is an instrument used in observing the sun.
The helioscope was first used by Benedetto Castelli (1578-1643) and refined by Galileo (1564–1642). The method involves projecting an image of the sun onto a white sheet of paper suspended in a darkened room with the use of a telescope.
[1]
The first heliotropii telioscopici or helioscope was designed by Christoph Scheiner (1575 –1650) to assist his sunspot observations.""

Sounds like not much got past them observationally.

You can imagine what Galileo was thinking when observing these things.. All this in the middle ages, where people still believed everything was god`s creation. I would have been quite stunned, if I was Galileo.

[keeha]

Space.com, Dec.16,08: Earth's Atmosphere "Breathes" More Rapidly Than Thought

The expansion and contraction happens way up in the Earth's thermosphere, the layer of the atmosphere that extends from about 60 to 300 miles (96.5 to 483 kilometers) above the planet's surface. The thermosphere is constantly interacting with the sun's upper atmosphere as it expands out into the solar system, said one of the researchers...

Extreme ultraviolet (UV) radiation from the sun was known to cause a 27-day expansion-and-contraction cycle by changing the thermosphere's density through heating.

Thayer and his team analyzed data from the German Challenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) and the NASA Advanced composition Explorer satellite and found that the thermosphere also appeared to breathe every five, seven and nine days, "which was unexpected," Thayer said.

The researchers determined that the cause of these shorter expansions and contractions was high-speed winds generated by relatively cool pockets on the sun's surface known as solar coronal holes, which periodically rotate around the solar surface...

The changes in heating that cause the breathing can also impact climate, by triggering the upper atmosphere's "thermostat," as study team member Martin Mlynczak of NASA's Langley Research Center, Hampton, Va., put it. The added UV radiation heats up the atmosphere, in turn causing gaseous molecules to radiate that heat away in the form of infrared radiation.

This seems to talk about coronal holes.

Science Daily, April 03,08: Source Of Solar Wind [Mentioned] in Mainstream

The solar wind consists of electrically charged particles that flow out from the Sun in all directions. Even at their slowest, the particles race along at 200 km per second, taking less than 10 days to travel from the Sun to the Earth.

This seems to talk about solar flares.

Is the cycle mentioned in the first article just an artefact of the corneal holes on the surface and average velocity in space of the ejected material?

[bdw000]

I do not remember reading anywhere how the current flow through the sun relates to the planetary orbits.

Anyone have any links to where this is discussed? Or, post your brief response here.

The reason I ask is that it sure would be convenient if the current flow was perpendicular to the ecliptic (I believe that is the model used here for galaxies: a flow of current perpendicular to the galactic plane [as well as flows through the arms within the plane]). Anyone remember the left hand rule? If the current flow is perpendicular to the ecliptic, that sure would make me think that the current flow has something (no matter how major or minor) to do with the planetary orbits. If this seems unreasonable please remember I am no expert and just speculating. I have no idea how this could relate to the moon's orbit around the earth . . .

I seem to get two different views when reading this website or other sources: either stars are at some point along a Birkeland current, or current is flowing to the star from all around (these are my impressions: please point out if they are flawed!).

It just seems to me that there is probably a standard answer here and I seem to have missed it.

[dahlenaz]

These articles may be of some help but i can't say for sure.
http://www.wired.com/science/discoverie ... ce_spurned

http://berkeley.edu/news/media/releases ... 1999b.html

This guy on youtube might have some ideas that would apply to your question but i don't know how valid his ideas are.


http://www.youtube.com/user/cobu2002


d...z

[LAShaffer]

You might want to also research the heliospheric current sheet. It carries a current and rotates with the sun, which just happens to be the same direction in which the planets rotate.