Quake Prediction 2010

[William Kinney]

I think the recent quakes in Haiti and Chile were preceeded by solar flares, interrupting a long quite quiet sun period, helping to set up the earthquakes. I am supposing that the quiet sun solar wind has been pressing on the outer Van Allen belt (at Carpenter's knee) rotating it through negative-negative charge repulsion. The quiet sun solar wind has been sampled at 8 electrons per cubic centimeter [/cm-3] and 1 to 3 ions/cm-3. This is a massive charge diference. True, just sitting there, this would be a fantastic vacuum. But it is not just sitting there. It is coming at us at something like 700,000 miles per hour. How many centimeters in just one mile? In 700.000 miles? Times 8. The quiet sun solar wind comes in at about 300 km/sec. The earth in its counterclockwise orbit is going at 30 km/sec, so there is a "running in the rain" effect making the solar wind come in to us at an apparent direction about 9 degrees ahead of a direct line to the sun. Looking down, the incoming electrons press the belt electrons counterclockwise across towards the East. My hypothesis is that the flares disrupt this steady pressure. The protons and other ions burst to maybe 900/cm-3 at 900 km/sec. It's like pushing in the clutch in a stick-shift car. There is a sudden release of rotational pressure. The result is what I call "slop quakes".
Once the solar flares become more frequent, the normal quiet-sun pressure will already have been disrupted, so this source of earthquakes will be less effective.
How the spinning of the outer Van Allen belt gets down to the spinning of the hard crust we stand on is extremely complex. The prevailing westerlies sweeping across the temperate zones are part of the answer. The atmosphere rises up on the day side, as if it were attracted outward towards a positive sun, and somes back down in the evening, where one can look for some of the transfer of torque to occur.
The earth is being spun from the outside, as we see the weather systems on TV move persistently eastwards towards the rising sun. We don't see any hand reach up from the powerful inner levels of the earth to spin the atmosphere.
I am looking to set up evidence for my earth rotation hypothesis. There are electric effects under the crust also. AN anon poster noticed that the Haiti and Chile quakes were at the same longitude--and asked about Boston.

[tolenio]

Hello,

Here is another example;



Note the elevated geomagnetic activity in the K index for March 17, 2010. That means above normal solar plasma leaked into the magenetosphere forming plasmoids at approximately 90E longitude. (latitude established by plasma density and polarization). This means there should be a related quake, larger than regular background quakes in two days somewhere along the ~130 E longitude on March 19th, 2010.

That is the two days it takes for the plasmoid moving eastward to reach the tectonic faults in that area.

Later,
Tom

[thane]

Japan looked right on. I'm seeing some activity 1/2 way across the pacific as well but it's kind of outside the latitude expected. Can you tell me how you come to your time predictions of the movement of the plasmoid? Where is it now?

[tolenio]

Hello,

There are a number of ways...

Plasma makes gas more dense, therefore tracking barometric high pressure points is a strategy.

Plasma heats gas so warm fronts is another.

Plasma is responsible for lightning and tracking lightning is another option.

That is why I use this mapping of lightning;



This link offers five day averages for lightning;

http://wwlln.net/five_day_density_average.jpg

The above link shows a plasma concentration east of Japan and that is the puppy that will cause a quake on the 19th.

I am sure there are better tools.

Tom

[thane]

I notice this quake:

1.344°N, 126.451°E

5.1 rating.

Could this be it? It's a bit south and a day earlier than your prediction. Or do you expect this to be a northern hemisphere quake?

[tolenio]

Hello,

Whether northern or southern hemisphere depends on the polariztion content of the solar plasma.

Today we have this in the southern hemisphere;

Magnitude 5.3
Date-Time Friday, March 19, 2010 at 10:50:06 UTC

Location 5.264°S, 147.709°E
Depth 171.8 km (106.8 miles)
Region EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG, PAPUA NEW GUINEA



I prefer to wait the day out and see if there is another quake.

Tom

[Grey Cloud]

Hi Tom,
Great work you are doing.

A sort of off-the-wall question for you. In the map above, have you any thoughts on why the orogenic belt in the Americas runs more or less vertically, while the one streching from the western Med to India runs horizontally?
I realise the plate boundaries follow these orientations but, to me, that begs the question of which came first the belt or the plate line. Also there is no belt or 'new' mountain range running down the East coast of Africa even though there is a plate line. In fact it is the opposite there - a rift.

[tolenio]

Hi,

You need to look at the direction of movement of the plates.



I am taking a wild guess here, but I suspect that the plasmoids carry both solar polarizations, and usually one is more prominient in the ratio than the other, or the plasma has both negative and positive charge components. Depending on the ratios current either flows one way or the other.

Depending on the direction of current flow it affects the direction of electromotive force. Total guess.



Another guess is that the electromotive force of the plasmoids discharge is interacting with a planetary magnetic field.

If you overlay the planetary magnetic field strength with gravity anomaly mapping you can see that the earth mimics the magnetogram of the sun in regards to magnetic anmalies.





The pinch point over the Indian Ocean is very important z-pinch of plasma.

I am sure there is a better answer.

Tom

[thane]

Tom,

Not really at the 130 E as predicted but how close does it need to be? Do you still expect one at 130?

What about the earlier prediction of west coast US on the 24th? Does the data still look good for that one?

Thanks!

[thane]

Hi,

mimics the magnetogram of the sun in regards to magnetic anmalies.

The pinch point over the Indian Ocean is very important z-pinch of plasma.

I am sure there is a better answer.

Tom

Tom,

Can you mark up the gravity anomaly graphic so I can see what you are seeing as far as the sun goes? I just don't see it.

[Grey Cloud]

Hi Tom,
Thanks for the reply. I'll leave it there as I have a bucket load of questions but they don't concern your work.
Cheers.

[tolenio]

Magnitude 4.6
Date-Time Friday, March 19, 2010 at 21:46:23 UTC
Saturday, March 20, 2010 at 06:46:23 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 31.368°N, 142.245°E
Depth 31.5 km (19.6 miles)
Region IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION

[thane]

Tom,

Could the 5.x quakes in the Aleutian islands have anything to do with the plasmoid moving east and the prediction of a larger than background quake on the 24th for the west coast? Seems about the right amount of time to make the move that far east.

What do you think? Too far north?

[tolenio]

Hello,

I believe the plasmoids move at differetn speeds by latitude. This matches the differential rotation of the sun by latitude.



This would mean that the quake in Alaska would be from an older plasmoid event.

My guess would be to look at this history of geomagnetic activity for the past 30 days, and look at high latitude plasma (A index) between March 4th through the 7th.

Last 30 Days Daily Geomagnetic Data
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DGD.txt

I am assuming speed of movement is inverse to magnetic field strength. Faster at equater where it is weak, slower at the poles where it is strong.

Possibly a means to convert the sun's differential rotation in days to earth plasmoid movement in days is to take the sun's days by latitude and multiply by 1.618 to get a rough estimate.

Tom

[thane]

Do you have data to relate the large Chile quake to a plasmoid?