The Sun

Historic planetary instability and catastrophe. Evidence for electrical scarring on planets and moons. Electrical events in today's solar system. Electric Earth.

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nick c
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Re: Do sunspots cause climate change?

Unread post by nick c » Tue Dec 15, 2009 7:40 am

GaryN,
Nice article, it seems NASA does not accept the results of its' own study, opting for a "politically correct" interpretation.
While the NASA study acknowledged the sun’s influence on warming and cooling patterns, it then went badly off the tracks. Ignoring its own evidence, it returned to an argument that man had replaced the sun as the cause current warming patterns.
solar_activity_proxies.png



Question: The y axis of the graph is labeled 10Be.



Is that an isotope of berylium? Can anyone explain the way that this relates to temperature or warming?


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Re: Do sunspots cause climate change?

Unread post by Grey Cloud » Tue Dec 15, 2009 8:22 am

First point: Never take anything written in a UK newspaper as gospel.
Second: Read the first three paragraphs of the article.
Para 1:
Leading scientists, including a Nobel Prize-winner, have rounded on studies used by climate sceptics to show that global warming is a natural phenomenon connected withsunspots, rather than the result of the man-made emissions of carbon dioxide.
Para 2:
The researchers – all experts in climate or solar science – have told The Independent that the scientific evidence continually cited by sceptics to promote the idea of sunspots being the cause of global warmingis deeply flawed.
Para 3:
Studies published in 1991 and 1998 claimed to establish a link betweenglobal temperatures and solar activity – sunspots – and continue to be cited by climate sceptics, including those who attended an "alternative" climate conference in Copenhagen last week.
The 'leading scientists' are employing the usual strawman tactic.

Third point: Earth's climate is an extremely complex subject, blaming climate change on any single source, whether man or Sun, is ridiculous.

Fourth point: Climate change and global warming are not synonymous.
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The great Way is simple
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Re: Do sunspots cause climate change?

Unread post by Pianoman » Tue Dec 15, 2009 9:54 am

I read the article this morning in London and this is standard of this particular publication. Its typical of the whole media driven debate on the subject - absolutely no real evidence presented for the reader to make fair conclusions and no balance given to other scientists to refute any allegation made. And you wonder why 'science' get a bad name!

I actually think the public is waking up to this type of sensationalism that infects all corporate media driven flow of information.

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Re: Do sunspots cause climate change?

Unread post by The Great Dog » Tue Dec 15, 2009 9:58 am

...absolutely no real evidence presented for the reader to make fair conclusions and no balance given to other scientists to refute any allegation made.
Exactly. The Great Dog noticed that they castigated Svensmark's pack without providing the "what" that they considered "deeply flawed."

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Re: Do sunspots cause climate change?

Unread post by Grey Cloud » Tue Dec 15, 2009 10:07 am

The only part of the Independent article which surprised me was this:
The issue has gained new importance in the light of opinion polls showing that nearly one in two people now believe global warming is a natural phenomenon unconnected with CO2 emissions.
I didn't think that my fellow citizens were that smart.
If I have the least bit of knowledge
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Re: Do sunspots cause climate change?

Unread post by nick c » Tue Dec 15, 2009 11:12 am

With regard to the question posed in the title of this thread, "Do sunspots cause climate change?" The answer is no. A correlation between A and B does not necessarily imply that one causes the other, they could both be dependent on a third factor, C. In this case sunspots do not cause earth's climate change, but both have a common cause.
Sunspots are one of the features of weather on the Sun.
The question should be, what causes the weather? on all bodies in the solar system?
As would follow from EU theory, the weather on the Sun and to a lesser extent, the planets, is caused by galactic birkeland currents. The effect of human activity is negligible.
A star is the focus of a galactic "glow discharge." The electrical energy that courses through the solar system and powers the Sun is a subtle form of energy that all of the planets intercept to some degree. Planets orbit within this discharge and intercept some of the electrical energy. Planets are minor "electrodes" within a stellar discharge envelope.

http://www.holoscience.com/news.php?article=aapprbh6
If this is the case, then climate change (if it is real) should be noticeable to some degree on other bodies in the solar system, since the causal factor is external to the solar system. Although, there may not be enough information to form any definite conclusions, there seems to be some preliminary indication that climate change is also occurring elsewhere in the solar system.

Mars Is Warming, NASA Scientists Report:
http://www.heartland.org/policybot/resu ... eport.html

Suggestive correlation between the brightness of Neptune, solar variability, and Earths temperature:
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2 ... 8764.shtml

Global Warming detected on Triton:
http://www.scienceagogo.com/news/199805 ... _sys.shtml

Pluto thought to be warming up:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/20 ... 697309.htm

New Storm on Jupiter Hints at Climate Change:
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/0 ... ed_jr.html

Prediction of a global climate change on Jupiter:
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v4 ... 02470.html



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Svensmark Heart Attack

Unread post by The Great Dog » Tue Dec 15, 2009 12:35 pm

The Great Dog recently read that Henrik Svensmark suffered a heart attack on live Danish television while engaged in a climate change debate. He has a pacemaker that delivers a shock to the heart when it detects the signs of arrhythmia.

He stopped in mid-word, gurgled and coughed, then slumped to the stage whispering, "it's my heart." The device shocked him a second time, whereupon he screamed and totally collapsed. He is alive and in the hospital.

God bedring Henrik.

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Re: Do sunspots cause climate change?

Unread post by redeye » Tue Dec 15, 2009 12:55 pm

With regard to the question posed in the title of this thread, "Do sunspots cause climate change?" The answer is no. A correlation between A and B does not necessarily imply that one causes the other, they could both be dependent on a third factor, C. In this case sunspots do not cause earth's climate change, but both have a common cause.
Sunspots are one of the features of weather on the Sun.
The question should be, what causes the weather? on all bodies in the solar system?
As would follow from EU theory, the weather on the Sun and to a lesser extent, the planets, is caused by galactic birkeland currents. The effect of human activity is negligible.
Great point Nick. I remember reading that a decrease in Sunspots suggests that the Sun is discharging over a larger surface area and this could indicate an increase in input.

Might we also see changes in the Planets magnetospheres and auroras, possibly the discharging of Io and Enceladus too.

Sorry to digress but wouldn't an increase in Gasses which are opaque to infrared radiation decrease the input of heat into the atmosphere and mitigate any increase in warming caused by the greenhouse effect

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Re: Do sunspots cause climate change?

Unread post by Shelgeyr » Wed Dec 16, 2009 11:23 am

Nick c beat me to the point, and that's a good thing because I think he did a better job answering it and supporting his answer than I would. So now I have the luxury of saying "I agree!"

While one can certainly nail down the point that that which causes weather on Earth also causes weather on the Sun, I think we can simplify it to "that which causes weather", and unlike what I learned in my youth, we're not just talking "sunlight". In my opinion, it isn't just that electric power is delivered via Birkeland currents, but it is also changes within those currents - fluctuations in the power levels - that drives (mostly non-seasonal) weather changes.

I've heard of average sunlight exposure on our planet expressed in terms of wattage per square foot - what I'd like to know is what is the best estimate for (non-sunlight) power flowing through our orb via its circuit with the sun. Any idea of the amperage (mega- or -giga-amperage)? I know it is an awesome amount of power (from a human perspective), and I figure I'm not going out on a limb to suggest (as others have) that this has a "non-negligable" effect on our climate.

To sum up: Sunspots don't change our weather - sunspots are indicators that changes are occuring which affect both Solar and Terrestrial weather.

Sidebar question (which might need to be another thread, and for all I know already has been...): I believe that auroral discharges are basically ever-present, although predominantly occuring in "dark mode", with the part we actually call "Auroras" being that part of the discharge which is in "glow mode" due to the increased current density near the poles (it is a "volume" thing). What I want to ask is this: What would be the effect of the Auroras flashing over in to "arc mode"? Would it strictly be a high-altitude thing? Would it potentially carve out a new set of oceans or vaporize the ones we have? Any idea?
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Re: Do sunspots cause climate change?

Unread post by redeye » Wed Dec 16, 2009 3:56 pm

Is that an isotope of berylium? Can anyone explain the way that this relates to temperature or warming?
From wiki:
Beryllium-10 (Be-10) is a radioactive isotope of beryllium. It is formed mainly by cosmic ray spallation. Be-10 has a half-life of 1.51*106 years, and decays by beta decay to stable Boron-10 with a maximum energy of 556.2 keV.

Light elements in the atmosphere react with high energy galactic cosmic ray particles. The spallation of the reaction products is the source of Be-10 (t, u particles like n or p):

14N(t,5u)10Be; Example: 14N(n,p α)10Be
16O(t,7u)10Be

Plot showing variations in solar activity, including variation in 10Be concentration which varies inversely with solar activity. (Note that the beryllium scale is inverted, so increases on this scale indictate lower beryllium-10 levels).Because beryllium tends to exist in solutions below about pH 5.5 (and rainwater above many industrialized areas can have a pH less than 5), it will dissolve and be transported to the Earth's surface via rainwater. As the precipitation quickly becomes more alkaline, beryllium drops out of solution. Cosmogenic 10Be thereby accumulates at the soil surface, where its relatively long half-life (1.51 million years) permits a long residence time before decaying to 10B. 10Be and its daughter product have been used to examine soil erosion, soil formation from regolith, the development of lateritic soils and the age of ice cores. It is also formed in nuclear explosions by a reaction of fast neutrons with 13C in the carbon dioxide in air, and is one of the historical indicators of past activity at nuclear test sites.

The rate of Be-10 production depends on the strength of high energy galactic cosmic rays. Its influence is lower if the solar wind that is associated with solar activity is higher. The variation of Be-10 concentration with time in Antarctic ice samples may be an indicator of solar activity in the past.[2]
I think they use Be-10 for dating - there was a huge spike in the amount of Be-10 in the atmosphere caused by atmospheric nuclear testing in the 50s. It's only just starting to get back to normal levels.

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Re: Do sunspots cause climate change?

Unread post by nick c » Wed Dec 16, 2009 5:47 pm

Redeye,

Thanks for that answer, concerning Beryllium 10.

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Re: Do sunspots cause climate change?

Unread post by junglelord » Wed Dec 16, 2009 7:17 pm

Yes lack of sunspots does directly effect the earths weather, by causing cooling due to more cloud production, based on the effect that occurs when less sunspots occur, due to a decrease in the magnetic field of the sun, which then allows increased cosmic rays to reach the earth, which then causes the increased cloud activity and such events as the Maunder Minimum are explained by these related events, which was a 70 year sunspot mininum with a mini ice age during that period with more clouds.

http://www.thunderbolts.info/wp/forum/phpB ... f=4&t=2642
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dKoUwttE0BA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DbAe_g41Zl4

We are in a cooling period and the current sunspot cycle (#24) is very decreased in activity and came very late.
Decreased activity and coming over two years late, means it will be a very quite solar cycle which is a sign of a decreased magnetic field from the sun...which means more cosmic rays, and more clouds, and cooler temperatures.
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Re: Do sunspots cause climate change?

Unread post by Shelgeyr » Thu Dec 17, 2009 7:16 am

Junglelord, it may be splitting fine hairs, but I still think it isn't the lack of sunspots per se that is causing the cooling, but rather the decrease in current hitting the sun (and by extension the Earth) is causing both the diminished (or absent) sunspots, and the cooling on our planet. In other words, both are caused by the same thing rather than the one (sunspots) causing the other (weather change on Earth).

I can see how the relationship might seem causal, especially if there's anything near a one-to-one relationship. But since we know there is an electric current between the Earth and the Sun even when sunspots are absent, it isn't like sunspots are a "light switch" for earthly heating and cooling. Rather, I see both phenomena (loosely) as motors fed by the same main power trunk. One that has very dirty power, by the way, with lots of line noise! Your thoughts?
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Re: Do sunspots cause climate change?

Unread post by junglelord » Thu Dec 17, 2009 9:20 am

Sunspot activity is a sign of magnetic field strength. But it is the cosmic rays that seed the aerosol particles to make clouds. The relationship between the two is clear. Don't worry about splitting hairs.
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If you only knew the magnificence of the 3, 6 and 9, then you would have a key to the universe.
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Casting Out the Nines from PHI into Indigs reveals the Cosmic Harmonic Code.
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Re: Do sunspots cause climate change?

Unread post by Pianoman » Sat Dec 19, 2009 10:50 am

@Shelgeyr - I would tend to agree with you although JL is also correct. There is a broad correlation between sunspots and temperature however there are areas of divergence. Sunspots are the best visible proxy we have although the 10.7cm Solar Radio Flux seems to be a better proxy.

Cosmic rays clearly play a part but its not a the whole story. Lets not gets sucked into the same trap that CO2 induced global warming fanatics have taken. Cool heads for hot topics needed.

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